by There was a general feeling around the College Football Playoff talk that TCU is lucky to be there and one loss will knock the Horned Frogs out. But it shouldn’t be.
No doubt TCU needed some second-half comebacks to win, none more noteworthy than the game-winning fire drill field goal to beat Baylor on Saturday. But this goes back further. Last week, ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith ejected the Frogs, saying they hadn’t played against anyone and that “competition matters.” He read out the schedule and said it doesn’t deserve a place in the top four, even if it’s undefeated.
It generated a lot of reactions, because that’s what it’s all about after all. But Smith was not alone. Paul Finebaum, in the same segment, agreed and downplayed the quality of the Big 12.
What Smith, Finebaum and others missed is that the Big 12 is the deepest conference in the country. Eight of the 10 teams are eligible for a bowl. There are no pushovers and the nine conference games are more than the SEC or ACC. Of the CFP top four, TCU has the strongest schedule in multiple ratings, including ESPN’s FPI and Sagarin. The Horned Frogs are #1 in ESPN’s record strength, which evaluates the odds that the average top-25 team would hold that same record against the same schedule.
An undefeated TCU will make the CFP. We know that. The conversation we should be having is whether or not a single-loss TCU should be introduced.
That said, the place to find the Frogs is that they don’t have a real big win. Georgia defeated Oregon and Tennessee. Ohio State and Michigan beat Penn State. Every team that has beaten TCU has at least three losses. This is partly due to the depth of the conference. But if you want to prove you can beat a top team, TCU hasn’t and won’t get a chance. (Michigan and Ohio State will try to prove it against each other.) That could ultimately be what keeps TCU out if it doesn’t win its next two games.
But what you can’t say is that TCU didn’t play against anyone. You can’t say it didn’t deserve these victories. After a weekend that saw Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan all battling many inferior opponents, perhaps withdrawing a late-November comeback at Baylor proved that the Horned Frogs do belong.
Here’s this week’s edition The athletic 131.
1-10
| Rank | Team | File | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
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1 |
11-0 |
1 |
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2 |
11-0 |
2 |
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|
3 |
11-0 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
11-0 |
4 |
|
|
5 |
10-1 |
7 |
|
|
6 |
9-2 |
6 |
|
|
7 |
10-1 |
9 |
|
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8 |
9-2 |
5 |
|
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9 |
9-2 |
8 |
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10 |
9-2 |
11 |
There is no change in the top four and the moment of truth has arrived. After Michigan broke out of Illinois, I thought I’d finally give Ohio State the lead. Then the Buckeyes had to escape against Maryland. Every argument you can make about these two teams has its points. Ohio State has a better second win (Notre Dame), while Michigan played no one in nonconference. Michigan flattened Penn State, while Ohio State needed a fourth-quarter comeback. Ohio State’s struggles in certain circumstances make me think this could be a repeat of last year when Michigan’s toughness won in the trenches. But now Wolverines running back to Blake Corum can get hurt, and quarterback JJ McCarthy hasn’t been very good. I’m not sure Michigan can win a big game with his arm.
I’m still leaning a bit towards Michigan, but now it will finally be settled on the field and we can continue discussing whether the loser should be in the CFP.
Michigan maintained an undefeated record for the Ohio State game. (Rick Osentoski/USA Today)
USC finally got a big win, defeating UCLA 48-45, putting the Trojans ahead of LSU. The Tigers have victories against Alabama and Ole Miss and the schedule is tougher. But USC doesn’t have a lopsided loss, and Oregon State’s win on the road is valuable. Anyway, both teams are still deciding their fate for the CFP, I believe.
Clemson jumps to No. 7 due to Tennessee’s lopsided loss to South Carolina. The loss to Notre Dame still holds Clemson off, but the win in Florida State has gotten better with time.
Tennessee’s 63-38 loss to South Carolina makes the Vols a very hard team to field. They are out of the CFP race, but wins against LSU and Alabama keep them from falling further. The only other change is Washington entering the top 10 after Utah’s loss to Oregon.
11-25
Penn State is also a strange team to judge. The 9-2 Nittany Lions have seven big wins, but they face relatively weak competition. None of the wins stand out. They were mistreated in Michigan, but played Ohio State hard. Oregon stays ahead of Penn State as it has two big wins against Utah and UCLA. Notre Dame keeps going higher and higher, and Clemson’s step back upstairs makes that Irish victory even better. The Irish were also ahead of Florida State due to the Clemson results between them.
The Group of 5 spot in the New Year’s Six probably still goes to the champion of the American Athletic Conference, but it’s about time Coastal Carolina, UTSA and Troy also get some recognition for the seasons they have.
26-50
Illinois remains in place after the narrow loss in Michigan because of the effort and because of other results across the country. UCF drops out of the top 25 after losing to Navy, but stays ahead of Cincinnati due to infighting. That could change when Cincinnati and Tulane meet this week. Iowa is back and deciding its destiny in the Big Ten West after beating Minnesota. Kirk Ferentz continues to do just enough.
South Carolina is another hard-to-place team. The sweeping win against Tennessee is one of the most impressive of the season, but the Gamecocks were also beaten by Florida last week and lost to Arkansas earlier in the season. The Razorbacks trail Liberty because of the head-to-head loss.
Oklahoma leads Oklahoma State after Saturday’s 28-13 Bedlam victory. Boise State’s victory in Wyoming clinched Mountain West’s Mountain division and home field in the championship game. The Broncos are 6-1 since a 2-2 start, when they fired their offensive coordinator and QB Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. They fixed it, but losses to UTEP and BYU leave them behind other Group of 5 teams.
51-75
Wisconsin crept into bowl eligibility for the 21st consecutive season with a 15-14 comeback win against Nebraska. It wasn’t pretty, but it looks like Jim Leonhard will probably get the full-time job. Houston destroyed East Carolina 42-3 and remains one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. James Madison is 7-3 in his first FBS season, but is not eligible for the postseason as an FCS transition team. However, the Dukes can still win a share of the Sun Belt East if they beat Coastal Carolina this week.
Iowa State lost 14-10 to Texas Tech and will miss a bowl game. The Cyclones are 3-11 in one-possession games the past two seasons. SMU has allowed 145 points in the past three games, including 59 in Thursday’s loss to Tulane. Wyoming’s small loss to Boise State doesn’t get the Cowboys very far. Appalachian State and Georgia Southern will play for bowl eligibility in their rivalry game next week as App State is not yet eligible as it has two FCS wins. Texas A&M got past UMass in another uninspiring performance. What about Vanderbilt? The Commodores have beaten Kentucky and Florida in back-to-back weeks.
Fresno State turned its season around in a big way, capturing the Mountain West’s West division with a 41-14 win against Nevada, its sixth consecutive win. San Diego State has won five of six (the loss comes to Fresno State), and quarterback Jalen Mayden has boosted that offense for the first time in a long time.
76-100
Miami had nine yards at halftime against Clemson and lost 40-10. The Canes must beat Pitt to get to a bowl game. Georgia Tech defeated North Carolina 21-17 and Brent Key is 4-3 as interim head coach with two Top 25 wins. Ohio’s recovery continued with a 32-18 win against Ball State, and the Bobcats are one win away from winning the MAC East, but the stature of injured quarterback Kurtis Rourke is key.
Cal defeated rival Stanford 27-20. UConn lost to Army 34-17 and must wait and hope for a bowl selection. FAU lost 49-21 to Middle Tennessee with bowl eligibility on the line and must beat WKU next week. Rice (in North Texas) and UTEP (in UTSA) also need setbacks next week to get to bowl games and perhaps save their coaches’ jobs. Indiana beat Michigan State 39-31 in double overtime despite being heavily outscored and completing just two passes. Virginia Tech ended its long losing streak with a 23-22 victory at Liberty. UNLV started the season 4-1, but has lost six consecutive games after losing 31-25 to Hawaii, ending the bowl hopes.
101-131
Bowling Green was eligible for a bowl with a last-second touchdown at Toledo in the snow in a wild finish. The Falcons are still in the mix for the MAC East title if they can beat Ohio. Buffalo’s game against Akron was snowed out and could affect that MAC East tiebreaker. Navy beat UCF and Army beat UConn, and both did so without completing a pass. Neither academie has a bowl game or the Commander-in-Chief trophy to compete for (because the Army has two FCS victories and the Air Force has earned the CIC), but that rivalry game is always special. The middle of the MAC still has a lot of parity. UMass battled Texas A&M bravely and capped the spread with a 20-3 loss, but it’s not enough to get out of the bottom position.
(Top photo: Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
