Week 12 Best bets on 3 games including Broncos vs Panthers

Follow Chris Raybon in the Action app to see all his betting picks.


NFL Week 12 Odds and Choices

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Panthers +2.5 (bet on a pick’em)
Best book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: The Broncos are 0-4 in real road games (their 21-17 win against Jacksonville came at a neutral venue). Given the subpar quality of their quarterback play and coaching, Denver simply needs every advantage it can get. That is reinforced by the injuries on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, the Broncos are without starting left tackle Garrett Bolles (IR; leg), starting center Lloyd Cushenberry III (IR; groin), and starting wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and KJ Hamler (hamstring).

The loss of Bolles and Cushenberry makes it easier for a Carolina pass rush that has come to life for the past four at 3.0 sacks per game. The Panthers averaged 1.4 sacks per game in the first seven games. And without Jeudy and Hamler, it should be easier for Carolina to knock out Courtland Sutton with Jaycee Horn in the top corner, who is allowed 3.6 yards per goal and a pass score of 31.3 on 320 coverage shots.

On defense, the Broncos lack key contributors at every level. Starting limit angle Ronald Darby (ACL) and nickel CB K’Waun Williams (knee) are on IR. Safety Caden Sterns (hip) is also on injured reserve, which turned out to be a net loss as Sterns (76.7 PFF class) had beaten Justin Simmons (70.0), who returned just as Sterns went down.

The once-vaunted Denver pass rush has dropped to 15th in touch percentage (22.7%) and 16th in bag percentage (6.8%) without Randy Gregory (IR; knee) and Bradley Chubb (traded), who together accounted for 45 presses and eight pockets.

Like PJ Walker, Sam Darnold should be an upgrade from Baker Mayfield. Mayfield simply could not play within this system, recording a league-worst 60.0% completion percentage from a clean bag. For context, Walker’s was 64.8% last season and Darnold’s was 66.7%.

With Mayfield on the bench, the Panthers offense should be able to do enough to surpass a Denver team that averages 14.7 points per game and ends up on 16 points or less in eight of 10 games. held.

The Panthers have averaged 22.2 points in non-Mayfield starts, with at least 21 points in four of five. They also tallied 16 points in eight of Darnold’s 11 starts last season.

According to our Action Labs data, domestic dogs with a total of less than 42 are 44-29-1 (60%) ATS as of 2018.

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Under 43.5 (up to 41)
Best book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: This game is set up as a defensive battle.

When the Ravens are on offense, they want to run the ball (30.4 rushing attempts per game; ranked seventh) and shorten the game (average 30.36 seconds between plays; 31st). Mike Caldwell’s defense has performed well against opponents on the ground, ranking ninth in allowed success rate (39.3%) and twelfth in expected points added per rush (-0.0184).

Even if the Ravens want to take advantage of a Jacksonville defense ranked 31st in DVOA against the pass, they’ll be forced to do so with a passing game that’s not on top form.

They will be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley (single), whose 90.0 PFF pass-blocking grade ranks second among 77 qualified tackles. They are still without No. 1 wide receiver Rashod Bateman (IR; foot) and just lost No. 2 tight end Isaiah Likely (ankle) — who helped offset Bateman’s loss with 18 catches, 206 yards, and 2 TDs — for at least this week. Their current top two wide receivers, Devin Duvernay (hamstring) and Demarcus Robinson (hip), are both listed as questionable after missing practice time this week.

The Ravens’ defense has been taken to the next level since the acquisition of linebacker Roquan Smith and the return of edge rusher Tyus Bowser, who allowed just 16 runs in two games. Baltimore should be able to handle a mediocre Jags offense that ranks 21st in points per game (21.6).

Opposing offenses often struggle to cope with the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, leading the Jaguars to allow just 14 points per game at home compared to 24.8 away.

According to our Action Labs data, the under is 10-2 (83%) all-time in Trevor Lawrence’s house, averaging 8.5 points. That includes a perfect 4-0 this season.

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Brown +3.5 (to +3)
Best book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: Rain and winds of 12-plus mph are expected in Cleveland, fueling the Browns’ rushing offense that ranks fourth in DVOA.

Their biggest weakness was defending the run (32nd in DVOA), which is less of an issue against the Bucs as they finish last in rushing yards per game (70.1) and per carry (3.1).

The Bucs have won by more than three points only four times this season, while the Browns have only lost by more than three points despite a 3-7 record. The Browns scored at least 23 points in six of ten games, while holding the Bucs under 23 points in nine of ten.

As I’ve mentioned before, underdogs with at least 3.5 with a game total of 47 or less are 49-22 (69%) ATS this season.

And regardless of overall, fading public favorites over field goal like the Bucs, who get 64% of the bets as of Saturday afternoon, have been even more profitable. Dogs that don’t get more than half the betting tickets go 46-19-1 (71%) ATS, according to our Action Labs data.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slip into FanDuel Sportsbook.


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